Kagel Canyon, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

241
FXUS66 KLOX 020015
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
515 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...01/321 PM.

Broad troughing over the West Coast will bring a cooling trend to
region through at least Wednesday. A return of low clouds and fog
to all valleys is expected through Tuesday as strong onshore flow
and a persistent marine layer depth will be in place across the
area. Clouds could reach the coastal slopes of the mountains on
Tuesday morning as the marine layer depth deepens. Night through
morning drizzle cannot ruled out during the next couple of nights
and mornings. Some warming is possible for late week as weak high
pressure aloft builds into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...01/319 PM.

An upper-level trough of low pressure continues to spin along the
northern Baja California coast this afternoon. Some showers are
streaming into the eastern Los Angeles County from the east, but
development has been more limited, so far. Shower development is
still possible through this evening as high-resolution multi-model
ensembles suggest more development taking place this evening over
the eastern San Gabriel mountains. Radar and satellite imagery
will continue to be monitored closely for any development.

Weakening the marine inversion, middle and high level cloudiness
continue to play tricks on the marine layer low cloud field. While
a partly to mostly cloudy evening is in play across the
Southland, an earlier arrival of low clouds and fog is setting up
along the Central Coast. Clouds hugging the Central Coast will
push into Central Coast through the evening, then spread into
areas south of Point Conception later in the evening.

Strong onshore flow will develop over the coming days as a second
upper-level trough off the North Coast of California digs south
into the region. A cooling trend with a deepening marine layer
depth will take place over the next couple of days and return low
clouds and fog to all of the valleys by Tuesday. The threat of
night through morning drizzle will develop over the coming nights
and mornings as dynamics with the trough will move over the
region. The highest chance of drizzle will be from Santa Barbara
northward tonight and into Monday morning, and from Santa Barbara
southward on Monday night into Tuesday morning. PoPs were nudged
higher inline with multi-model ensemble members, but there is a
chance that the Santa Barbara South Coast could see very light
measurable rain late tonight and into Monday.

As instability with the trough moves into the region Tuesday,
there is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains during the afternoon and evening hours. While the
moisture parameters are weaker than the current air mass, there is
enough moisture present. EPS precipitable water value means
approach 1.10 inches, which is about 150 to 175 percent of normal
for this time of year. This will need to be watched closely over
the coming days.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...01/316 PM.

Persistence is probably the best forecast for the coastal areas
for late this week. A persistent onshore flow and marine
intrusion will bring little change to the forecast for Wednesday
through at least Friday. Night through morning low clouds and fog
should expected across the coastal areas. Ensemble members
introduce a warming trend away from the coast beyond Friday and
through the weekend as EPS and GEFS 500 mb height means rise.
There is a pretty good chance that the region will end up in a
June Gloom type pattern with clouds hugging the beaches and warmer
than normal days across the interior portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0014Z.

At 2350Z at KLAX, there was no recent sounding data available.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF. There is a
10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms through early
evening, including KWJF and KPMD.

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. With approaching
upper level trough and developing eddy circulation, expecting
a deepening marine layer trend with patchy drizzle possible.
Low confidence in onset and dissipation timing of cigs, with
moderate confidence that IFR cigs tonight will transition
to MVFR cigs by Monday morning due to deepening marine layer
trend. There is also a 30% chance of mvfr cigs lingering
across portions of the coastal TAFs on Monday.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Arrival/dissipation times of cigs
may be off by +/- 3 hours. IFR cigs tonight will likely transition
to MVFR by Monday morning, with a 30% chance of cigs lingering
through the afternoon hours. There is a 20-30% chance of east
winds reaching 8 knots or greater on Monday morning.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 10% chance for VFR conds
to prevail through the forecast period. Otherwise, low confidence
in minimum flight cat, which may be off by one cat. Arrival time
may be off +/- 2 hours.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM.

For the Outer Waters, there is a 40-50% chance of localized Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) level wind gusts for the western portion of
the northern Outer Waters, around Point Conception, and south to
San Nicolas Island into the late evening. Additionally, there is
a 60% chance for seas to reach or exceed 10 feet in the western
portion of the northern and central Outer Waters late tonight into
Monday afternoon, with a 30% chance of seas lingering into Monday
night. Thereafter, conditions look to remain below advisory
criteria through the week. However, Tuesday evening may see some
breezy conditions south of Point Conception, and seas may briefly
approach 10 feet in the norther Outer Waters in the afternoon and
evening hours.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, high confidence
in conditions remaining below SCA criteria through the week.
However, there is a 20% chance for SCA level wind gusts late this
afternoon into the evening over northern portions.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, high confidence in conditions
remaining below SCA criteria through the week. However, there is
a 20% chance of SCA level wind gusts over the western portion and
near Santa Cruz Island late this afternoon into the evening.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through
the week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM
      PDT Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox